Simone Fontecchio

Miami Heat

10 15 20 30 50 82
17
Points Stability
3.5
Median PTS
5.7
Mean PTS
0.99
CV
5.3
IQR
Mixed
Volatility Driver

Points Distribution

P10 1.8 10th percentile: Player scores above this in 90% of games. Useful for setting conservative "floor" expectations.
P25 2.0 25th percentile: Player scores above this in 75% of games. Represents a "bad night" baseline.
P50 3.5 Median (50th percentile): The middle value - player scores above this exactly half the time. More reliable than mean for prop betting.
P75 7.3 75th percentile: Player scores above this in 25% of games. Represents a "good night" threshold.
P90 12.3 90th percentile: Player scores above this in only 10% of games. Identifies ceiling/blowup potential.
Min 0 Minimum: Lowest score in this window. Shows worst-case scenario - useful for assessing downside risk.
Max 23 Maximum: Highest score in this window. Shows ceiling potential when everything clicks.
MAD 1.5 Median Absolute Deviation: Average distance from the median. Lower = more consistent. Less sensitive to outliers than standard deviation.

Points Over Last 20 Games

Prop Line Analysis

Recent Scoring

Date Opp MIN PTS FG 3P FT PPM
01/11 @ OKC 2 3 1-2 1-2 0-0 0.00
01/10 @ IND 8 5 2-3 1-1 0-0 0.00
01/06 @ MIN 5 - 0-1 0-1 0-0 1.00
01/04 vs NOP 1 - 0-0 0-0 0-0 1.00
01/03 vs MIN 16 9 3-8 3-8 0-1 0.00
01/01 @ DET 6 5 2-3 1-1 0-0 0.00
12/29 vs DEN 3 3 0-1 0-1 3-3 1.00
12/27 vs IND 3 2 1-3 0-2 0-0 0.00
12/23 vs TOR 9 5 1-4 0-2 3-3 0.00
12/21 @ NYK 17 7 1-6 1-4 4-7 0.00
12/19 @ BOS 30 12 4-13 4-9 0-0 0.00
12/18 @ BKN 22 7 2-7 1-3 2-2 0.00
12/15 vs TOR 26 3 1-5 1-4 0-0 0.00
12/09 @ ORL 8 - 0-5 0-3 0-0 1.00
04/13 @ MIL 19 15 5-9 4-7 1-1 0.00
04/11 vs MIL 5 3 1-2 1-2 0-0 0.00
04/10 vs NYK 6 - 0-0 0-0 0-0 1.00
04/07 vs SAC 8 2 1-3 0-2 0-0 0.00
04/05 vs MEM 16 2 0-4 0-3 2-2 0.00
04/04 @ TOR 14 5 2-3 1-2 0-0 0.00
04/02 @ OKC 12 6 1-4 0-2 4-4 0.00
03/30 @ MIN 25 3 1-8 1-5 0-0 0.00
03/28 vs CLE 14 3 1-3 1-3 0-0 0.00
03/25 vs SAS 17 2 1-2 0-1 0-0 0.00
03/23 vs NOP 19 8 3-6 2-3 0-0 0.00