Aaron Nesmith
27
Points Stability
12.5
Median PTS
13.9
Mean PTS
0.42
CV
6.5
IQR
Mixed
Volatility Driver
Points Distribution
P10
7.0
10th percentile: Player scores above this in 90% of games. Useful for setting conservative "floor" expectations.
P25
10.3
25th percentile: Player scores above this in 75% of games. Represents a "bad night" baseline.
P50
12.5
Median (50th percentile): The middle value - player scores above this exactly half the time. More reliable than mean for prop betting.
P75
16.8
75th percentile: Player scores above this in 25% of games. Represents a "good night" threshold.
P90
22.2
90th percentile: Player scores above this in only 10% of games. Identifies ceiling/blowup potential.
Min
7
Minimum: Lowest score in this window. Shows worst-case scenario - useful for assessing downside risk.
Max
24
Maximum: Highest score in this window. Shows ceiling potential when everything clicks.
MAD
4.0
Median Absolute Deviation: Average distance from the median. Lower = more consistent. Less sensitive to outliers than standard deviation.
Points Over Last 10 Games
Prop Line Analysis
Recent Scoring
| Date | Opp | MIN | PTS | FG | 3P | FT | PPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/14 | vs TOR | 31 | 6 | 1-12 | 0-8 | 4-4 | 0.00 |
| 01/12 | vs BOS | 32 | 6 | 2-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0.00 |
| 01/10 | vs MIA | 27 | 12 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 0.00 |
| 01/08 | @ CHA | 35 | 16 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 0.00 |
| 01/06 | vs CLE | 33 | 14 | 5-17 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0.00 |
| 01/04 | @ ORL | 34 | 25 | 8-16 | 5-11 | 4-4 | 0.00 |
| 01/02 | vs SAS | 29 | 9 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0.00 |
| 12/31 | vs ORL | 32 | 9 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0.00 |
| 12/29 | @ HOU | 24 | 14 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0.00 |
| 12/27 | @ MIA | 19 | 9 | 3-9 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0.00 |
| 04/13 | @ CLE | 14 | 10 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0.00 |
| 04/10 | vs CLE | 30 | 22 | 7-14 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 0.00 |
| 04/08 | vs WAS | 29 | 7 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0.00 |
| 04/06 | @ DEN | 30 | 17 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 0.00 |
| 04/04 | vs UTA | 20 | 12 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0.00 |